August 2020 Release
Granular Insights now offers the Yield Predict Insight (Beta) as a starting point for more informed in-season decisions and fewer surprises at harvest. This simple chart shows you an estimate of predicted yield on each field and across your operation without setting foot in every field, by using satellite imagery and advanced data science.
For the 2020 season, Yield Predict (Beta) will only be available in select geographies within the US where predictions will be most accurate. The Yield Predict Insight will generate predictions for corn and soybean fields enrolled in Directed Scouting.
To get started,
- Navigate to the Insights tab on the top ribbon of the screen (available web only).
- Click “Yield Predict” on the left-hand side of the screen.
- View a simple chart with Yield Predictions (green dots), generated every 16 days in-season.
- To make the level of accuracy clearer, a Confidence Range is presented in terms of +/- bushels (light green zone). The Confidence Range is calculated by analyzing previous years’ predictions against actual yield.
- Click the dropdown menu to view Yield Predictions across your entire corn or soybean crop or field-by-field.
How Does the Yield Predict Insight (beta) Work?
First, the data science team created a model to determine which factors were most predictive of yield. This model, created using machine learning, powers the Yield Predict Insight.
- Ten years of historical data was analyzed including weather, satellite imagery, elevation data, and aggregated yield data from growers who have provided consent.
- The historical yield data is anonymized when it is aggregated, so does not contain information that could be used to specifically identify a farmer or their operation.
- Once the model is developed, it is only a formula - the model contains no data.
To generate the yield predictions that you see, the following current data for your region is then input into the model:
- Crop type (corn or soybeans)
- Satellite data from MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel
- Gridmet weather data
- USGS elevation data
An individual farm’s planting, yield, or other field operations data is NOT used to generate their yield prediction.
How accurate is the Yield Predict Insight (beta)?
The Confidence Range is provided in terms of +/- bushels to help visualize the accuracy of the yield prediction. The yield predictions may change over time, typically becoming more accurate throughout the growing season as more satellite imagery and weather data is collected.
While our team of data scientists has done our best to ensure the most accurate predictions possible, the Yield Predict Insight should be used as a starting point. We encourage farmers and their advisors to supplement with other research and information, such as comparing their historical yield data, ear photometry, and considering weather and field conditions that may impact yield.
We would love to hear your feedback. Please use the thumbs up or thumbs down buttons on the Yield Predict Insights page or get in touch with us at firstname.lastname@example.org.